NOTE: The opinions and writings in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Canadian government or armed forces.
The Canadians have one of the longest and most inhospitable coast lines in the world, this makes policing the territory especially in the high arctic regions all the more difficult.
Recently the Canadian navy has decided to replace the twelve aging Halifax class Frigates with fifteen of the British Type 26 thus also replacing the already decommissioned Iroquois class destroyers.
The type 26 for Canada will incorporate the new Aegis warfare system and the long cell MK41 VLS capable of firing the Standard missile, Tomahawk and LRASM when it becomes available.
The will allow the Royal Canadian Navy the ability to operate much better with their southern neighbors navy and maintain a general purpose frigate in the fleet.
The Current Fleet
The Victoria class originally the British Upholder class were designed in the 1980’s and a planned batch of 12 boats were originally to replace the Oberon class.
With the end of the Cold War and substantial budget cuts only four boats were ever built the other eight being cancelled.
The four boats were quickly laid up due to aforementioned budget cuts and the decision for the Royal Navy to go all nuclear, the last boat HMS Unicorn paid off from Royal Navy service on October 16th 1994 after just 15 months in commission.
The upholders were first offered to the Pakistani Navy but were turned down and thus they sat idle along side for quite some time before Canada made a bid for them in 1998 in order to replace their Oberon class.
The Upholders were transferred to Canada starting in October 2000 the first being commissioned in December 2000. Of course, many who follow submarine news are well aware they have had a troublesome experience with these boats.
The fire on HMCS Chicoutimi which killed LT Chris Saunders was one such incident, this led to the boat not entering service until 2015, and more recently damage to a ballast tank on HMCS Corner Brook put the submarine out of action for seven years.
On July 14th 2021 news came out the Royal Canadian Navy will start the process of looking for a replacement for the now elderly Victoria class submarines.
With the problems of purchasing second hand equipment in mind it is likely the next submarines will be brand new and there are quite a few good options out there for the Canadians to choose from.
Requirements
I think it will be clear that there will be several key requirements that the Canadians will want to ensure before any bidding for the new submarine takes place.
Some of the key requirements I believe will be paramount for the future submarine acquisition will likely be:
1) To be built and Maintained in Canada (although I would say if building them in Canada would turn out to be cost prohibitive then they may drop this requirement)
2) Reasonable cost per unit
3) Have long ocean going endurance and capabilities (45-90 days)
4) Be a conventionally powered submarine or AIP (nuclear wont be an option due to cost)
5) Be of a proven design and likely already be in service with other navies
6) Have the ability to take the Lockheed fire control suite (like the Australians)
7) Have the ability to fire the MK48 torpedo and have the option to be able to fire anti ship missiles and mines (currently deleted from the Victoria class)
8) Have a life span of 40 years
To meet these requirements I have narrowed it down to just four boats which I believe fit the requirements I have listed, these boats are currently either in service or under construction.
The Boats
Sweden’s Modified A26
Sweden has a modified variant of its A26 submarine which is much larger at 4,000tons displacement as opposed to the two Swedish variants at 1,900 tons, the modified A26 has a cost of around $473 million US.
These submarines were offered to the Australians to replace the Collins class but given the history and the inability of Saab to meet all the contractual parameters of the Australian government brief it was not selected, the A26 has also seen interest from Poland and the Netherlands.
Japanese Soryu class
The Soryu is a very advanced submarine and this is the first class of submarine listed for export by Japan, it is slightly larger than the Victoria but much more capable, it also features an Air Independent Propulsion system and is an ocean going submarine, per unit cost is estimated at $610 million US per boat .
India, Morocco, Norway Netherlands and Taiwan have expressed interest in the submarine, and the Soryu did take part in the Australian competition but was not selected.
France Short fin Barracuda
These boats are much larger than the Victoria class and are the only one to feature a pumpjet propulsion unit but as of yet no AIP capability, Canada has substantial ties with France so a deal could be reached for a batch of boats.
But with the current problems facing the Australian Navy in procuring these boats it may work against any potential bid as well as the current cost is around $800 million US per boat.
German Type 212CD
Currently in build and a larger version of the successful type 212 these boats will be the smallest option, they do have ocean going capability and also have AIP installed, each boat is projected to cost $660 million per boat.
Currently Norway has selected this class to replace the type 210 Ula class, and given the interoperations of Norway and Canada the type 212CD would be a good fit.
The type 212 and its variants the Types 214 and 218 are in service with Greece, Italy, Israel, Singapore, Turkey, Portugal and South Korea.
Who would win? (my own opinion)
In my own opinion all the submarines have good merits but of all the designs it would have to be a clash between the Japanese Soryu and the German type 212CD, with the likely winner being the German type 212CD.
While overall the Japanese design offers transpacific operation the Canadian government does not have substantial ties with Japan, the Soryu is a success and is in service and with the cost being $610 million US per boat it meets the affordability the Canadians will likely seek however.
The Japanese are new to the export market and may not be able to meet all the Canadian requirements in terms of alterations, electronics and technology they wish to put in the boat.
The German Type 212CD is my own personal favorite to win and the reasons are that like the Soryu, they are in service so they are tried and tested but critically, they are in service with multiple navies.
Canada already has substantial ties with Europe and Germany.
While more expensive per boat than the Soryu they still have the long-range capability with AIP technology.
With the Germans having exported to multiple nations each with their own unique requirements its likely the Germans can accommodate any changes the Canadians want with minimal problems.
It is unlikely we are to find out in the near term just who has won the bidding, but this is just my own observations and opinions in short form as to who I personally think will win any future bid for the future Canadian navy submarine program.
Naturally there is much more to it than what I have written (I limit each article to around 1500 words maximum)
Of course many people reading this may not agree or may have a different view the objective of the article is to create a discussion and share views, and of course none of us will know who is right for now, so if you do have a different view or opinion leave a comment lets discuss it or alternatively you can join The Navy General Boards facebook page.