Over the past few years, the media has made a big deal of the artificial island bases that China has built in the South China Sea. Several of these islands are well fortified, featuring harbors, airstrips, and formidable land-based weaponry. Some in the media have gone so far as to claim that these island bases provide an impenetrable defensive barrier to foreign vessels, specifically those of the United States. However, I am of the belief that these islands are not as militarily important as other Chinese military ventures. In this article, I will explain why China’s island bases are not a big deal in the larger scheme of things.
China’s Island Bases
As far back as the mid 1990s, China began placing small structures on several islands under the auspices of building shelters for fisherman who frequented the area. Several nations protested, but China rejected these claims. Starting in the early 2010s, China became much more ambitious. At seven islands, they began large scale reclamation projects. Sand was pumped onto coral reefs, forming solid cases. Concrete was then poured onto these bases, providing solid platforms for various structures.
So quick was the work, that by the time surrounding nations began to protest, China had already built up around 2000 acres of new islands. As time went on, three islands were equipped with airfields and ports. Smaller islands were fortified with guns, anti-air systems, and radar systems. Today, China is estimated to have developed over 3000 acres of artificial islands.
These islands are strategically important as they occupy the important South China Sea. While most have already discussed the natural resources of fish and oil in the area, fewer talk about the huge number of merchant ships travelling through the region. Over 50% of the world’s merchant trade passes through this area every year. By controlling this area, China commands an area that sees a greater amount of tonnage than the Panama and Suez Canals put together.
Why China’s Island Bases are Not a Big Deal
Fiery Cross Reef undergoing development into an island bases. Dredging ships are pumping sand ashore to be used to expand the island.
The Airfields Make them “Unsinkable Carriers”
To hear the news media discuss these island bases, one would think China has created some sort of wonder weapon. The phrase “Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier” is very popular as of late. Indeed, these islands, with their aircraft and missile defense systems are very reminiscent of aircraft carriers. Also the fact they cannot be “sunk” in the traditional sense does make them seem more effective. However, just because these islands do not have the weaknesses of a traditional aircraft carrier does not mean they also enjoy the same strengths.
China’s island bases are hampered by the fact that, unlike an aircraft carrier, they cannot move. They are forever stuck in the exact same spot. This would mean, in the event of war, that an enemy could easily strike these bases. In addition, while they cannot be “sunk”, they can be disabled. For instance, several weapon strikes on the runway would most certainly leave it unfit for operation. Being a small island, the equipment needed to repair the runway is likely not on hand either.
Mischief reef is the largest and most capable of China’s island bases, featuring a large harbor, airstrip, and fortified seawalls.
What About the Harbors?
Many are also commenting on the presence of artificial harbors built into some of the islands. While these harbors can provide shelters for naval warships, we would do well to remember that these are not the same as typical naval base. Warships require fuel, food, munitions, something that a small base of several hundred acres cannot stockpile in meaningful qualities. In addition, none of the island harbors have the equipment or resources needed to conduct repairs on warships. In the event of battle damage, Chinese warships would have to sail all the way back to the mainland to be repaired. The biggest benefit these island bases might provide Chinese warships is a shelter under their missile systems.
So the Missile Systems are a Threat
Out of everything, the missile systems are arguably the greatest threat to aircraft and warships. China’s land based anti-ship missiles can threaten ships in a 300 mile radius around them. Its anti-aircraft missiles are thought to be able to protect an area 200 miles around them. These missile systems give the islands a considerable safety barrier around them. In addition, they can be used to shelter Chinese warships under their protective umbrella.
However, this useful defensive capability comes at a significant cost. Due to the small size of the islands, the missile systems cannot be readily relocated or hidden, leaving them exposed. In addition, the corrosive saltwater environment has proven to be difficult for the missiles to handle. It appears that the missile systems have been shipped back to China several times to be refurbished. This would suggest that island bases might not be well protected at times when their missile systems are out of commission.
How would these Islands be dealt with by the United States?
The guided missile submarine USS Florida launches a Tomahawk cruise missile. A saturation attack by cruise missiles would likely be the best way to silence China’s island bases.
Would the United States be able to contend with these island bases? Ironically, they have had experience with similar issues before. During World War II, Japan pursued a similar strategy of defending their territory by fortifying several islands. While it was costly to capture these islands, many were simply blockaded and their garrisons left to starve until the war ended.
China’s island bases, offering no major strategic value, would likely be left alone in a pseudo blockade. Should it be decided to attack these islands, a cruise missile strike conducted by submarines would likely be the best bet to quickly cripple the bases. China could shelter their warships with these islands, however it would be easy to draw them out by focusing on other more important targets.
Do the Islands Represent Anything?
Militarily speaking, the island bases might be overestimated by the media. However, they do represent something significant. They are a physical symbol of China’s desire to be the dominant power in their hemisphere, a literal flag driven into the ground. While they might not mean much to other world powers, to the smaller Asian nations, they are a sign of troubling things to come.
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